英国的疫情不是单一的零号病人至少有1300个不同的来源

一家英国机构的研究表明，英国的疫情不是单一的“零号病人”至少有1300个不同的来源。研究还发现，英国最初的新冠肺炎病例大多来自欧洲国家，不到0.1%直接来自中国。

A woman and child wearing protective face masks get off a bus in London on Wednesday, complying with a new rule that requires people using public transport in the UK to wear face coverings. HENRY NICHOLLS/REUTERS

Coronavirus was brought into the UK on at least 1,300 separate occasions, a major analysis of the genetics of the virus shows.

根据对新冠肺炎基因的大规模分析，新冠肺炎至少从1300个不同的来源传入英国。

The study, by the Covid-19 Genomics UK consortium (Cog-UK), completely quashes the idea that a single "patient zero" started the whole UK outbreak.

由新冠肺炎英国基因组学联盟进行的研究彻底推翻了单一研究“零号病人”引发英国所有疫情的观点。

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The analysis also finds China had a negligible impact on cases in the UK.

分析还发现，中国对英国病例的影响微不足道。

Instead those initial cases came mostly from European countries.

相反，英国最初的病例大多来自欧洲国家。

The researchers analysed the genetic code of viral samples taken from more than 20,000 people infected with coronavirus in the UK.

研究人员分析了2万多名新冠肺炎感染者的病毒样本基因码。

Then, like a gigantic version of a paternity test, the geneticists attempted to piece together the virus's massive family tree.

然后，就像亲子鉴定的巨大版本一样，遗传学家试图拼凑出巨大的病毒族谱。

This was combined with data on international travel to get to the origins of the UK epidemic.

结合国际旅游数据，得出了英国疫情的起源。

They found the UK's coronavirus epidemic did not have one origin - but at least 1,356 origins. On each of those occasions somebody brought the infection into the UK from abroad and the virus began to spread as a result.

他们发现，英国的新冠肺炎疫情不仅有一个来源，至少有1356个来源。每次有海外输入病例，病毒都会从国外带到英国，然后病毒开始传播。

"The surprising and exciting conclusion is that we found the UK epidemic has resulted from a very large number of separate importations," said Prof Nick Loman, from Cog-UK and the University of Birmingham.

尼克·洛曼教授说：“令人惊讶和兴奋的结论是，我们发现英国的疫情是由大量单独的外国输入病例引起的。”

"It wasn't a patient zero," he added.

“而不是一个‘零号病人’引发”，他补充说。

The study showed that less than 0.1% of those imported cases came directly from China. Instead the UK's coronavirus epidemic was largely initiated by travel from Italy in late February, Spain in early-to-mid-March and then France in mid-to-late-March.

研究表明，不到0.1%的输入病例直接来自中国。相反，英国新冠肺炎疫情主要是由2月下旬从意大利出发、3月上旬至中旬从西班牙出发、3月中下旬从法国出发到英国的国际游客引起的。

"The big surprise for us was how fluid the process was, the rate of and source of virus introduction shifted rapidly over the course of only a few weeks," said Prof Oliver Pybus, from the University of Oxford.

奥立弗，牛津大学·皮布斯教授说：“最让我们吃惊的是这个过程有多流畅，病毒传播的速度和来源在短短几周内迅速变化。”

"This happened later than perhaps we would have expected," added Prof Loman.

洛曼教授补充道：“这可能比我们预期的要晚。”

The study estimates 80% of those initial cases arrived in the country between 28 Feb and 29 March - the time the UK was debating whether to lockdown.

该研究估计，80%的初始病例在2月28日至3月29日抵达英国，英国正在讨论是否实施封锁。

After this point, the number of new imported cases diminished rapidly.

此后，新增输入病例迅速减少。

The earliest one could be traced back to the beginning of February, but it is possible there were cases even earlier that could not be picked up by the analysis.

最早的病例可以追溯到2月初，但也可能有更早的病例无法通过分析发现。

The study also says the controversial football match between Liverpool and Atletico Madrid, on 11 March, probably had very little impact on bringing the virus into the country.

研究还指出，3月11日利物浦和马德里竞技之间有争议的足球比赛可能对将病毒带入英国影响不大。

An estimated 3,000 fans flew in from Spain to watch the game, but there were 20,000 people flying in from Spain every single day in mid-March.

据估计，3000名球迷从西班牙飞往英国观看比赛，但3月中旬，每天有2万人从西班牙飞往英国。

"[It] shows that individual events such as football matches likely made a negligible contribution to the number of imports at that time," the study says.

研究指出：“这说明当时足球比赛等单项赛事对输入病例的影响可能很小。”

The imported cases each started off a chain of transmission where the virus is passed from one person, to the next, to the next and so on.

每个输入病例都会打开一个传播链，病毒会一个接一个地传播给一个人。

However, the study shows lockdown has massively disrupted the spread of the virus.

但研究表明，封锁措施极大地阻断了病毒的传播。

"If there's good news here, these chains of transmission were and are being suppressed and going extinct as a result of social distancing and we continue to see that now," Prof Loman said.

洛曼教授说：“如果有好消息，那就是由于社会隔离措施，这些传播链继续被抑制和消失，这种情况一直在继续。”

英文来源：BBC